The survey results show that companies are more positive about China’s economy and their industry outlook. Expectations for turnover, profits, investment and employment are all higher compared to last year. Looking at recent geopolitical escalations, the majority of companies is impacted by the Iran war, mainly through higher logistics costs and supply prices. Moreover, companies are hit by both U.S.-China and EU-China trade tensions, though tariff effects have eased slightly. Meanwhile, companies' top concern about EU–China relations and the impact on their business are the EU's efforts to reduce dependencies.
Key findings:
- Companies more positive on China's economy: 37% of companies predict an improvement in China’s economy over the next six months, a substantial increase of 22 percentage points from last year. At the same time, only 17% expect a deterioration - a sharp decrease from 56% in 2025.
- Industry development picks up: Companies assess their industry's development more positively than a year ago with 34% reporting improving conditions for 2026, up from 19% in 2025. Meanwhile, 33% see conditions worsening - an 11 percentage points drop from last year.
- Across-the-board upticks in indicators: By the end of 2026, 42% expect rising turnover (29% in 2025), while 29% foresee higher profits - up 11 percentage points from 2025. Participants also report increases in investment and employment, contributing to an overall more positive outlook.
- Almost two thirds plan to increase investments: 61% of companies plan to increase their investments in China within the next two years, up from 53% in the previous year and marketing the highest level since 2023. Conversely, 11% plan to reduce investments, three percentage points fewer than in 2025.
- Three‑quarters affected by Iran war, mainly due to rising costs: With 75% the majority of companies report that the Iran war influences their business operations. Rising logistics costs are the most commonly cited impact, selected by 55% of companies, followed by higher supply prices (47%) and price increases for own products (20%).
- Majority hit by triangle trade tensions: Companies are affected by both U.S.-China and EU-China trade tensions, with 69% of respondents report being negatively affected by U.S.–China tensions and 59% impacted by EU–China tensions.
- Impact of U.S. and Chinese tariffs eases slightly: Although U.S. tariffs remain the most impactful, 69% of companies report being affected in 2026 - seven percentage points fewer than last year. Chinese tariffs hit far fewer firms, falling 21 points to 42%. Meanwhile, the share affected by U.S. lists notably rises by 12 percentage points to 44%, while 27% report being affected by Chinese lists (+6 percentage points compared to 2025).
- Dependency reduction from China tops EU–China business challenge: Looking at companies’ concerns regarding EU–China relations and their influence on their business, the EU’s efforts of reducing dependencies rank first at 52%, followed by overcapacity concerns and negative trade balance in the EU (40%) and the growing sensitivity in the EU toward cooperation in certain fields (32%).
About the Flash Survey
Between April 15 and April 21, 2026, a total of 216 member companies of the German Chamber of Commerce in China participated in the survey.
About the German Chamber of Commerce in China
The German Chamber of Commerce in China has more than 1,800 members and serves as a powerful platform for networking and exchange between German companies and local business communities. With three regional chapters for North China, East China as well as South & Southwest China, we offer our members more than 250 events each year, a range of informative publications and effective representation towards governments.